Time is running out for a conversion to sustainable technologies
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Trying to digest the remarkable news that 350,000+ people
have plunked down a grand to get on a list to buy a car that won't be
made for two years, and that they stood in a line to do it, I found
myself watching a video of
Elon Musk announcing his $135,000 Model X SUV. It is pretty easy to see
why this guy gets that many to part with their money to just buy a
place in line. Musk talks with the sort of ease and confidence of
someone who has had a string of successes and knows what he is doing.
In the world of the Producer Classes, this is the prime requirement of a
leader.
This, friends, is probably the most interesting subject of all. History has shown that political revolutions are usually murderous failures. The main reason is that one subgroup of the Leisure Classes is likely to be very much like the bums they replace. The Roman Senators of 46 a.d. were probably a lot like USA Senators in 2016—vain, greedy, and clueless. They are essentially conservative—they don't want things to change because mostly, they want more of the same. The Producer Classes, on the other hand, want to change things very much and in the last 300 years, they have succeeded magnificently. Whether the subject is communication, transportation, food production, or energy production and utilization, the methods and objects created by Producers are dramatically better than a few centuries ago. As I like to say, aero engineers are not in the habit of wondering exactly what their "founding fathers" like Wilbur Wright thought about airplane construction.
So yes, Musk is a Producer and yes, Producers actually CAN change the world. In fact, they are about the only ones who can. And over the years, there have been some strategies for change that have worked a lot better than others. Musk has chosen one of the best and he is executing it extremely well. The basic plan is this:
Considering that with the possible exception of Musk, no one really knows how to sell these things so selling a half million cars is a TALL order. Yes it will be easier once Musk has shown the way but it is still a LOT harder than it looks. Musk builds brilliant cars. He takes great joy in making something ridiculously interesting—not to mention crazy-fast. People like buying products from someone who is out there trying to build something that is, as Steve Jobs would put it, insanely great. And when electric cars become mainstream, the "revolutionary" who made it happen will be this Producer who first made them cool.
The follow is an article that highlights the massive problems of converting out of coal-fired electrical generation. This is an industry that moves MUCH more slowly than the automobile business. We should have been getting on with the conversion at LEAST a decade ago and yet we are still building brand new coal-fired plants. Talk about not getting it.
This, friends, is probably the most interesting subject of all. History has shown that political revolutions are usually murderous failures. The main reason is that one subgroup of the Leisure Classes is likely to be very much like the bums they replace. The Roman Senators of 46 a.d. were probably a lot like USA Senators in 2016—vain, greedy, and clueless. They are essentially conservative—they don't want things to change because mostly, they want more of the same. The Producer Classes, on the other hand, want to change things very much and in the last 300 years, they have succeeded magnificently. Whether the subject is communication, transportation, food production, or energy production and utilization, the methods and objects created by Producers are dramatically better than a few centuries ago. As I like to say, aero engineers are not in the habit of wondering exactly what their "founding fathers" like Wilbur Wright thought about airplane construction.
So yes, Musk is a Producer and yes, Producers actually CAN change the world. In fact, they are about the only ones who can. And over the years, there have been some strategies for change that have worked a lot better than others. Musk has chosen one of the best and he is executing it extremely well. The basic plan is this:
- The first products will be very expensive to make. Therefore, you must get high prices for something no one has ever purchased before.
- The best way to get high prices for a new product is to get premiums for soft features. The most obvious is aesthetics but appeals to the human as a social animal who wants to be a responsible members of the larger group will also work quite well with something like an electric car.
- Once you have figured out how to make something must-have with the trendsetters, the next step is to leverage this accomplishment by mass-producing a much more affordable version.
Considering that with the possible exception of Musk, no one really knows how to sell these things so selling a half million cars is a TALL order. Yes it will be easier once Musk has shown the way but it is still a LOT harder than it looks. Musk builds brilliant cars. He takes great joy in making something ridiculously interesting—not to mention crazy-fast. People like buying products from someone who is out there trying to build something that is, as Steve Jobs would put it, insanely great. And when electric cars become mainstream, the "revolutionary" who made it happen will be this Producer who first made them cool.
The follow is an article that highlights the massive problems of converting out of coal-fired electrical generation. This is an industry that moves MUCH more slowly than the automobile business. We should have been getting on with the conversion at LEAST a decade ago and yet we are still building brand new coal-fired plants. Talk about not getting it.